Hearts 3 x 1 Motherwell

Hearts host Motherwell in Week 33, 2025/26. A home comfort test for Hearts, with Motherwell’s travel form offering a counterpoint. The market and the numbers tilt toward an open, goal-friendly encounter rather than a low-scoring grind.

Result odds: Hearts 2.05 | Draw 3.38 | Motherwell 3.71. Home edge matters; Hearts win probability sits at a clear premium in this fixture.

Both teams to score: Yes 1.67 | No 2.05. BTTS is priced as the more likely outcome than not, in line with a fixture averaging BTTS around 49% historically.

Goals: Over 2.5 1.83 | Under 2.5 1.96. The overall xG in this head-to-head sits above 3.00, suggesting potential for a 2-1 or 2-2 type result; yet the under-4.5 market (1.08) points to a compact final score under five goals.

Corners: Over 7.5 1.21 | Over 8.5 1.38 | Over 9.5 1.63. Average corners for this fixture sits around 9.3; the market leans toward a higher-corners game, with Hearts often dominant on set-piece entries.

Clean sheets: Hearts Yes 2.80 | Motherwell Yes 4.33. Hearts’ home defensive ceiling is respectable, while clean sheets for Motherwell away are less probable.

Double chance: Hearts Win or Draw 1.29. The home side carry a favorable outlook here, offering solid cover against an away side with mixed form away from home.

Key trends: Hearts’ home xG around 1.76 with concede roughly 0.96; Motherwell away xG around 1.46, with away win rate near 27%. The head-to-head total xG clocking in the mid‑3s reinforces the case for a lively affair, not a defensive lull.

Stat note: The head-to-head total xG before this match averages 3.21, higher than the general fixture total of 2.49. This signals a tendency toward more goals than a generic match-up, even if the 4.5-goal line looks like the sharper market in low-variance terms.

Prediction: Hearts to win a tight but open contest, with BTTS likely and a final around 2-1. Expect a higher-scoring first half more than a defensive grind, supported by the corner and xG profiles.